Bitcoin Is Facing Down “Modest” Headwinds: JP Morgan Analysis

  • Bitcoin has gained approximately $1,000 from last week’s low of $10,400 as the coin now trades just shy of $11,400.
  • At the highs set on Tuesday, the cryptocurrency traded as high as $11,750.
  • The cryptocurrency has faced a slight retracement as the U.S. dollar has bounced after a strong drop.
  • While some think that this is just a short-term setback, JP Morgan sees Bitcoin slipping further in the near term.
  • They say that the cryptocurrency faces a “modest headwind” in the short term.
  • Most analysts, though, are convinced that the long-term trend for Bitcoin remains positive.

Bitcoin Is Facing Down “Modest Headwinds” in the Near Term

Bloomberg Quint reports that JP Morgan analysts are currently bearish on Bitcoin. Citing a research note released recently, the firm noted that the asset faces modest headwinds in the short term” based on an analysis of bets in the futures market and an estimate of the cryptocurrency’s intrinsic value.”

The indicator shows that there may be an “overhang of net long positions.” It wasn’t clarified if the firm was looking at the CME futures data or non-U.S. based exchanges such as BitMEX, ByBit, and others. It may be a CME futures analysis as the funding rate of BitMEX, ByBit, and other of these platforms are slightly in the positive, suggesting a balance between short and long positioning.

JP Morgan analysts added that the price of Bitcoin is about 13% higher than the “intrinsic value.” This value is derived from the cost of production for BTC, meaning how much it costs to buy one coin.

“The JPMorgan strategists said they calculated an intrinsic value by effectively treating Bitcoin as a commodity and looking at the marginal cost of production.”

Chart of BTC's price action since the start of 2017 with an instrinsic value analysis by JP Morgan analysts.

Macro Trend Still Favoring Bulls

The macro trends still favor bulls, though, analysts say.

Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision, recently said: 

“Most people don’t understand the latter but is simply put, Powell has shown that there is ZERO tolerance for deflation so they will do ANYTHING to stop it, and that is good for the two hardest assets – Gold and Bitcoin. Powell WANTS inflation. I don’t think he gets true demand push inflation but he will get fiat devaluation, in conjunction with the other central banks all on the same mission.”

The analyst thinks that the cryptocurrency will hit a price of $50,000 and beyond in this market cycle.

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Bitcoin Is Facing Down "Modest" Headwinds: JP Morgan Analysis

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